The Biggest Risk in Software Projects Isn’t Budget or Timeline. It’s Adoption.

Most people believe the biggest risk in a software project is going over budget or missing deadlines. They’re dead wrong!

The real risk is creating something that nobody wants to use.

So what do companies do? They try to protect themselves.  

They write lengthy RFPs, gather every requirement they can think of, and tell themselves that if everything is perfectly planned, it will all go according to plan.

But this approach results in spending hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of dollars on software that never gets used.  

The tragedy is that all of this comes from good intentions. They’re trying to safeguard themselves, but they’re targeting the wrong enemy. They plan to avoid timeline and budget risk, when the real threat is user indifference.

And the data proves it. Studies show that between 50% and 70% of new software or technology initiatives fail to achieve meaningful user adoption (Mint Group).

In enterprise systems alone, 55% to 75% of projects fail to meet their objectives, including adoption (Rand Group).

Companies think they’re reducing risk by planning every detail.

In reality, they’re locking in failure before they write a single line of code.

The illusion of safety

Having a very detailed plan laid out from the start can provide a sense of reassurance. It gives executives a reliable point of reference and fosters a feeling of control over the process.

But it’s not control; it’s a trap.

Users never behave as expected. Even when they believe they know what they need, they don’t truly understand until they start using something. And once they do, everything shifts.

That’s why the projects that succeed are not the ones that were perfectly planned. They are the ones that involve users early and change based on real user behavior.

What we should optimize for

If you want your software to really take off, focus on getting users on board. That means rolling out something they can actually use as soon as you can. Even if your big idea is going to take 12, 18, or 24 months to complete, you should have a version ready for people to start using in just a few months.

Once you have usage, you gather data. Once you have data, you gain clarity. And once you have clarity, you can start developing the product into something that truly matters.

Fixed budget and timeline are fine. Fixed scope is not.

You can definitely have a clear budget and a clear timeline. That’s good management.

But having a fixed scope is nonsensical.  Scope is what needs to change the most.

Every successful project I’ve seen learns something unexpected when real users interact with the product. The quicker you embrace that learning, the faster you find real value.  

As Mike Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” Building software is the same. The moment your product meets real users, your plan gets punched.

Ignoring it just to stick to a plan is a sure way to get knocked out and fail.

What success really looks like

A software project succeeds when it gets adopted. When users depend on it daily to solve real problems. When feedback drives each new release.

It’s not about being “done on time.” It’s about being used in the real world. That’s how you reduce risk in software. Not through more planning. Through real adoption.